Service Plays Thursday 12/18/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lang

Thursday night winner
25-Dime Indianapolis Colts - (if your line on this game is 7-1/2 you are to buy the 1/2-point and lay just 7 points; if the line is 7, buy the 1/2 and lay 6-1/2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
*Indianapolis 23 - JACKSONVILLE 13—Not convinced last week’s rally
vs. Green Bay a late-season “buy” signal on banged-up, going-nowhere
Jacksonville, which was down six offensive starters as well as top CB Rashean Mathis. Although Indy (no win by more than 4 on road) not a consistent margin team TY, Colts (7 straight wins) better synchronized than they were when Jags ball-controlled Indy to death at Lucas Oil Stadium Sept. 21. Colts motivated to wrap up a wild card before closing regular season finale vs. powerful Tennessee. TV—NFL (08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0) (07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1) (07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1) (08-Jack. +4' 23-21; 07-Indy -3 29-7, INDY -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-4)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2008 Indianapolis (-6½) JACKSONVILLE (45) 7:15 PM

The NFL network had to be thrilled to land this match-up before the season started but it much less appealing with the Jaguars completely
collapsing this season. Indianapolis has not been dominant but the Colts have now won seven consecutive games and should coast into the
playoffs as the top wild card team. The Jaguars snapped a four-game losing streak with its first ATS win at home all season long last week but the offense has topped 20 points just once in the last eight games. Jacksonville actually features a far superior run defense to the Colts and the Jaguars could be a dangerous home underdog. COLTS BY 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

NFL

Thursday, December 18th

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE by 3
If momentum is a key to a team’s playoff hopes then the Colts are playing
like locksmiths. Seven wins in a row and counting, Indy invades Jacksonville with the added incentive of revenge from a 23-21 home loss in Week Two earlier this season. The jamb in their plans is a nasty late season angle that fi nds dogs in Last Home Games in money-making moods when playing off SU underdog wins as these teams are 34-15-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS against an opponent off back-to-back wins. Despite the Ponies’ 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS log on Thursdays, we’ll stand up and Yale with the Jags.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 18 December 18th-22nd, 2008 •

NFL

Thursday, December 18h, 2008

@Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand with multiple fractures.

I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last 2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6 points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.

As we reach the end of the season my database contains a number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This play works particularly well when our team is on an
extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6 ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but have won straight up only once in that span despite an average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6 ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008
appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie against the Eagles.

The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league
and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting
them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end. Indianapolis by 1

 

[roadreeler57]

STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET


HOOPS







12/18/2008 (701) SAN ANTONIO at (702)
ORLANDO
After playing at New Orleans on Wednesday night, it
could be very easy for the Spurs to not take Thursday’s
night second half of the back-to-back road as seriously.
After all, the first game is against a fellow Western
Conference playoff contender. This one will be against
another contender, but one from the East, an Orlando
team that has been playing very well of late. There
are three particular trend angles that also indicate the
Spurs make for a favorable matchup for Stan Van Gundy’s team: 1) ORLANDO is 39-22
ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 TO’s/game over the last 2
seasons. 2) ORLANDO is 23-11 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game
on the season over the last 2 seasons. AND 3) ORLANDO is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units)
versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 TOs/game over the last 2 seasons.
These trends describe a not-very aggressive San Antonio team to a tee. Therefore both
situationally and match-up wise, this seems like a good spot fo
r the hosts.
Play: Orlando -2

 

[roadreeler57]

Pointwise NFL 12/18

THURSDAY
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Seven straight wins for the
Colts, with but 3 covers in that stretch, with their last 3 RGs decided by just 4, 3,
& 4 pts straightup. But this is a revenger, & Peyton is in synch (28-of-37 for 318
yds vs hapless Lions), & now 23/12 for the season. Jags in off snapping 4-game
SU slide, as well as 0-6 ATS home run slide. Thus, the dog is now 15-2 ATS in
J'Ville games. The Jags are 9-2 ATS in Dec, vs an opponent off a pair of wins, as
well as 8-2 ATS as division dogs. Another? Okay, they are 6-2 ATS vs the Colts.
And Indy is just a 1-8 ATS chalk, off a double digit win vs an opponent off a win.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

9-4 yesterday

Here is the early card for 12/18

UEFA Cup Soccer (2-0 yesterday)

2* Standard Liege/VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 -125
3* PSG/Twente Enschede over 2.5 -110

NBA (4-0 yesterday)

2* Magic -3

NHL (0-3 yesterday)

1* Canadiens -125
1* Lightning -125
1* Stars -150

NCAAB (3-1 yesterday)

Nothing at this time, will have plays in the afternoon.

NFL - will have plays later

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Virginia Commonwealth (-10) last night.

Today it's the Colts. The deficit is 495 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Over 44 Colts-Jags (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(713) WESTERN KENTUCKY
(714) SOUTH ALABAMA
Take "(713) WESTERN KENTUCKY"

Free opinion is Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a pretty decent team, not as good as last year to be sure, but still very capable of making noise again in the Sun Belt. They were awful last game as they were annihilated at Evansville, but watch for Western Kentucky to bounce back with a much better effort tonight in a big game at South Alabama. I look for a tight skirmish that goes to the wire, and I'm backing the visiting Hilltoppers plus the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Balfe's Huge Special Release Colts at Jaguars

Tonight will be a great divisional game between the Colts and Jaguars. Its not often that I release moneylines, but when I do they usually cash the ticket! The circumstances in this game call for us to take a shot. Read my writeup below.

Jacksonville +6.5 over Indianapolis (21-10 YTD!)
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, however this team is banged up big time and it is not good for them to be playing on such a short week of rest. Joseph Addai might not play and even if he does I do not see the Colts running the ball on the Jaguars defensive line. Payton Manning is going to have to throw the ball a lot and it doesn't help that Marvin Harrison is out tonight. To make matters worst Dallas Clark is banged up and so if 60% of the offensive line. This Colts team could be in major trouble tonight and for the rest of the regular season. The Jaguars had a very disappointing season, but there is no denying that they have a load of talent. This team underachieved and would like to do nothing more than make Indy wait another week to make the playoffs or perhaps miss them entirely. Jacksonville has a big offensive line going against a very undersized Colts Defense. Indianapolis is even hurting on defense with their LB's shuffled and Freeney and Sanders nursing injuries. Jacksonville already beat the Colts on the road this season and match up very well today. This is worth a moneyline play of +220. Take the Jaguars.

 

[brady1983]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (33-17 run)


Troy



Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider NBA

Portland

 

[wildatheart3]

maddux


#707 - NCAA - 3 units on Evansville +30

#711 - NCAA - 3 units on Florida International +12.5
#719 - NCAA - 3 units on Pepperdine +13.5

 

[DancesWSheep]

RAS

La Tech +3.5
Fresno St. -5.5

 

[roadreeler57]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=headline-1-orange>LT Profits</TD></TR><TR><TD>

</TD></TR><TR><TD>

</TD></TR><TR><TD>

CBB Free Pick: Northern Colorado +5.5 (-110)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[roadreeler57]

Cappers Access

<TABLE width="90%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Sport</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Favorite</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Underdog</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Line</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Pick</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Thur (NFL)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Colts</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Jaguars</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>6-</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Colts</TD></TR><CENTER><!--mstheme--></TBODY></CENTER></TABLE>

 

[roadreeler57]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=SiteText colSpan=2>StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets.com


<TR><TD class=SiteText colSpan=2>CBB | LOUISIANA TECH at SAMFORD
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOUISIANA TECH) off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points, playing only their 3rd game in a week
59-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.6% | 29.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units ) <HR></TD><TR><TD class=SiteText colSpan=2>CBB | MISSISSIPPI ST at CINCINNATI
Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more
165-39 since 1997. ( 80.9% | 67.6 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units ) <HR></TD><TR><TD class=SiteText colSpan=2>CBB | EVANSVILLE at N CAROLINA
Play On - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (N CAROLINA) after a win by 10 points or more, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season
81-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.9% | 37.0 units )
18-14 this year. ( 56.3% | 2.6 units )</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

9-4 yesterday

Here is the early card for 12/18

UEFA Cup Soccer (2-0 yesterday)

2* Standard Liege/VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 -125
3* PSG/Twente Enschede over 2.5 -110

NBA (4-0 yesterday)

2* Magic -3

NHL (0-3 yesterday)

1* Canadiens -125
1* Lightning -125
1* Stars -150

NCAAB (3-1 yesterday)

Nothing at this time, will have plays in the afternoon.

NFL - will have plays later

Rest of the card:

NCAAB:

1* Evansville +30
2* La Tech +3

NFL:

2* Colts/Jags over 44